A simplified approach to forward works plan modelling to address deterioration rate uncertainty. Ted James


Deterministic, network level forward works plan modelling provides an analysis simplification relative to  probabilistic modelling.  But the unexplained performance variability issue is important both  for  pavement maintenance practitioner and for budget management.  Obviously  addressing variability might introduce an increase in computer run time, a significant issue for large networks analysis.
It is argued that a simplified model approach can address forward works plan risk levels sufficiently for field use, while also  keeping computer run times within practical limits. Direct measurement and algorithm based analyses are compared. Austroads LTTP  outputs are used to assess  the analysis complexity necessary for field application. Experience with implementation of an Indonesian  National Highways pavement management system provides evidence.

Ted is a Civil Engineer with 50 years experience in pavement engineering spanning Australia, Libya, Malaysia and Indonesia in management, resident engineer and team leader roles in the fields of pavement design, asphalt materials, pavement materials manufacture, highway construction and supervision, technical guidance, governance and asset management systems.